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"America First"
Trump signs 26 executive orders on Day 1, but this memo is changing everything
Trump’s Trade Policy - Brace Yourselves
On his first day in the Oval Office, the newly elected president of the United States Donald Trump signed 26 Executive Orders. While at it, the new administration also released a Presidential memo with three key objectives; To address Unfair and Unbalanced Trade; Review Economic and Trade relations with China; and Address additional economic matters. Here’s how each objective of the new policy may affect your business.
Imports and exports to the US are about to take a new turn under Trump’s American First policy. The first objective of the policy is to identify and address all “unfair and unbalanced” trades. These include trade deficits, currency manipulations, the impact of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement on Americans, assessing loss of revenue and importation of contraband drugs under the $800 duty-free import policy of the US, and discriminatory trade practices targeting American citizens and companies. Although not cited in the Memo, the President mentioned the new tariffs will likely take effect from the 1st of February.
The new policy will also review outstanding US and China trade relations in a bid to even the odds and identify unfair practices on the part of the Chinese government. It is unknown how the United States plans to respond to the outcome of the investigation but here is what the government will be paying attention to when it concerns trading with China.
Finally, the policy calls for import adjustment based on the outcome of a full economic and security review of the industrial and manufacturing base of the United States. Review and assess the effectiveness of the exclusions, exemptions, and other import adjustment measures on steel and aluminum. Assess any distorting impact of foreign government financial contributions or subsidies on the United States, and the unlawful migration and fentanyl flows from Canada, Mexico, the PRC, and any other relevant jurisdictions and recommend appropriate trade and national security measures to resolve that emergency.
One outcome of the policy is a higher tariff on foreign goods. This will increase the cost of sales for businesses that depend on goods affected by the policy. As costs go up, sales will dip since most consumers will prefer the cheaper locally sourced alternatives. Companies that export to other countries may face retaliatory tariff increases but also enjoy a fairer and balanced international trade environment.
Are we looking at a new trade war between the US and China?
The US government is trying to ensure US businesses enjoy as much priviledges in China as are provided for Chinese businesses in the US. Investigating the actions of the Chinese government regarding prior agreements will however create tension between the two countries. Should any discrepancies be found, the US plans to impose new tariffs on Chinese goods (amongst other things), which could provoke a retaliatory action on the part of the Chinese government thus instigating another trade war between both countries.
The US is the largest importer of goods and services in the world and China is among the top suppliers of goods imported to the US. A trade war between both nations will take a heavy toll on international business owners that trade with or depend on Chinese imports. The high cost of importation, scarcity and high cost of foreign goods will benefit domestic businesses in additon to the planned tax reform.
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AI is getting a BOOST
If you are still sitting on the fence on AI, this could be your sign to go all in.
The world had watched as political events unfolded in the US up until Trump was declared winner of the US presidential election, a political comeback that most people never saw coming. Trump’s administration promises to be exciting as it is controversial. Prior to his victory, anybody who followed the election closely wouldn’t miss the not-so-subtle hints that the US economy was going to be the center of his administration.
The newly released trade policy, reduction of the corporate tariff, and increase of foreign tariffs all back this up. Even crypto is not left out as the president who has been very vocal about his support for cryptocurrency launched a meme coin on the day of his inauguration. In all this, there was little to no indication that Trump was going to be fortifying AI with a whopping 500 billion dollars investment.
Project Stargate was announced on Tuesday, 21st of January as part of President Trump’s plan to accelerate the development of Artificial Intelligence in the country. The major players are Open AI, SoftBank, and Oracle. 100 billion dollars have already been committed to kick off the first stage of the project which involves building 20 data centers capable of analyzing electronic health records and assisting doctors in patient care according to Oracle Chairman Larry Ellison.
The timeline for the project is not clear, however, it is expected that the full investment amount should be completed within four years.
An investment of this scale is going to have a huge impact on the AI race and within the next five years, we could see a spike in AI adoption as well as significant improvement in its capability. As a business owner, this is the right time to include AI in scaling or growing your business. Why not? Worse case scenario, AI becomes another superhyped technology with no commercial value or use cases. However, if the trends are anything to go by, it is clear that AI is much more than a Venture bubble that could blow up in our faces at any time. There are several ways AI is helping business owners scale, grow, and market their businesses with fewer resources and in a fraction of the time it would normally take to do so. A 500 billion investment into building AI infrastructure is a sign that we are about to see a leap in the technology that is like nothing we have seen before.
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Interesting Read - “Skepticism as a mirror, not a wall”
In his article “The Role of Naysayers For Early-Stage Entrepreneurs,” Itay Sagie discusses how entrepreneurs often encounter skeptics, including friends and family, who may express doubts due to personal risk aversion or genuine concern. He emphasizes the importance of distinguishing between feedback that reflects others’ comfort zones and insights from experienced entrepreneurs. Sagie advises validating business assumptions through direct market engagement, such as conducting surveys and interacting with potential users, to gather authentic feedback. He shares his own experience of developing a virtual data room productivity tool, where initial skepticism was countered by positive responses from target users, reinforcing his commitment to the project. Ultimately, Sagie encourages entrepreneurs to use skepticism as motivation to refine their ideas, emphasizing that combining personal conviction with market validation is crucial for transforming concepts into successful ventures.
Key Insights:
Entrepreneurs should recognize that skepticism often mirrors others’ personal comfort zones rather than the viability of the entrepreneurial vision.
Feedback from seasoned entrepreneurs is valuable as it is grounded in practical experience and can provide actionable insights.
Validating business ideas through direct market engagement, such as surveys and user interactions, is essential for gathering authentic feedback.
Personal conviction, when combined with real-world validation, is crucial for transforming ideas into impactful businesses.
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Until next time, Best Regards.
Alex